Bristol Bay 2025 Advisory Forecast Projects a 49.6M Salmon Run

A preliminary preseason forecast for the 2025 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery projects a run of 49.6 million fish returning to the bay, with a projected harvest of 32.4 million reds, based on data from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

The forecast from fisheries biologists with the University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, released on Aug. 15, came prior to finalized in-season data for the 2024 run and the formal run reconstruction process. Study authors said it should be considered strictly advisory rather than a formal forecast, given its lower accuracy and aggregated summary across stocks.

The very early forecast was prompted by the Bristol Bay fisheries community expressing interest in a preliminary preseason forecast, the study’s authors said.

The standard UW preseason forecast is set to be released in November and will include 2025 abundance estimates by age class for all nine rivers in Bristol Bay, and the anticipated 2025 harvest in numbers and pounds.

The preliminary preseason forecast suggests that 39% of the 2025 total Bristol Bay run will be two-ocean sockeye and 61% three-ocean sockeye. The 2025 Preliminary Preseason Forecast of 49.6 million is 18% below the 2013-2023 (10-year) average of 60.1 million sockeye, and nearly equal to the 20-year (2003-2023) average.

The forecast includes an average weight of 5.7 pounds, 36% higher than this year’s historically low 4.2-pound average.

The research was compiled by Professors Daniel Schindler and Ray Hilborn of the UW School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences; Christopher Boatright, UW program manager and research scientist with the Alaska Salmon Program; and Curry Cunningham, an associate professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences.