51M Fish Forecast for Bristol Bay Salmon Run

A Bristol Bay 2025 sockeye salmon run forecast estimating a return of 51.31 million fish and a potential harvest of 36.33 million fish was released Nov. 7 by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

The forecast is 16% smaller than the most recent 10-year average of 61.23 million fish and 38% greater than the long-term average of 37.07 million fish (1963-2024).

A run of 51.31 million sockeye salmon would allow for a potential harvestable surplus of 36.33 million fish: 34.78 million fish in Bristol Bay and 1.55 million fish in the South Peninsula June fishery.

ADF&G biologists said that a Bristol Bay inshore harvest of this size would be 15% less than the most recent 10-year average harvest of 40.91 million and 50% greater than the long-term average harvest of 23.27 million fish (1963–2024).

Age-specific forecasts for the 2025 run consist of 14.36 million age-1.2 fish (28% of the total run), 4.69 million age-2.2 fish (9% of the total run), 30.06 million age-1.3 fish (59% of the total run), and 2.18 million age-2.3 fish (4% of the total run).

The 2024 inshore Bristol Bay sockeye salmon run of 51.6 million fish, by comparison, was the 10th largest inshore run since 2004 and 7% above the 48.2 million average run for the latest 20-year period (2004-2023). It was the 10th year in a row that the total inshore run exceeded 50 million fish. The commercial harvest of 31.6 million sockeyes was 26% above the 25 million preseason forecast.

The 2024 Bristol Bay preliminary exvessel value of $128.1 million for all salmon species was 34% below the 20-year average of $193.4 million.

Those prices may not include incentives or icing, bleeding floating or production bonuses, according to Fish and Game.

Individual river forecasts have greater uncertainty compared to the baywide forecast. Since 2005, they have on average under-forecast returns to the Alagnak (-15%), Togiak (-6%), Kvichak (-37%), Wood (-22%), Nushagak (-22%), Igushik (-7%), Ugashik (-11%), and Naknek (-4%) rivers, and over-forecast returns to Egegik River (7%).

Over-forecasting returns to some rivers while under- forecasting returns to other rivers means that the overall Bristol Bay forecast is often more accurate than the forecast for any individual river.

The department received support from the Bristol Bay Fisheries Collaborative (BBFC), a collaborative agreement between the department and the Bristol Bay Science and Research Institute (BBSRI) to work together and with stakeholders to maintain the management system for the fishery.

Source: https://fishermensnews.com/51m-fish-forecast-for-bristol-bay-salmon-run/